China Carbon Fiber 2026: Capacity, Price War, Premium Push
China now has the world’s largest carbon fiber capacity, yet a price war in commodity grades coexists with shortages in high-end specifications. After expansion, the focus is shifting from availability to quality.
Capacity and output both high
Industry statistics show global carbon fiber demand of about 224,500 tonnes in 2025, up 43.8% year on year; domestic output grew about 47.7%, and still expanded 25.5% in the first half of 2026. Rising capacity and output indicate that import substitution has entered a deeper phase.
Price cycle
At the end of 2025, Jilin Chemical Fiber announced price increases effective January 1, 2026 for wet-process 12K and 3K carbon fiber, up RMB 5,000 and RMB 10,000 per tonne respectively, citing strong substitution for Japanese products, cost-effectiveness and stable performance. Meanwhile, planned industry capacity could reach 575,000 tonnes by 2030; if fully built, utilization rates will face further pressure and the commodity-grade price war is unlikely to end soon.
Premium grades are the way out
The main structure of Zhongjian Technology’s phase IV 2,000-tonne high-performance carbon fiber project has been completed, and total capacity is expected to reach about 5,000 tonnes per year once operational. High-performance carbon fiber of T800 and above is forecast to grow 20%–30% annually, the core growth theme of the industry. Demand for premium grades in low-altitude economy, pressure vessels and aerospace is far from saturated.
Advice for downstream buyers
For commodity grades, prices will remain volatile, so buy on demand and control inventory. For premium grades, prioritize suppliers’ process stability, batch consistency and certification progress, and establish joint validation early to avoid being caught short when demand ramps up.